Está aqui

home / Sociedade / Eventos / Nowcasting and forecasting the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in Portugal /
Voltar ao Topo
    
Seminários em Estatística

Nowcasting and forecasting the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in Portugal

Transmissão através de Videoconferência

Speaker: Liliana Antunes (Departamento de Epidemiologia Instituto Nacional de Saúde Doutor Ricardo Jorge / Faculdade de Ciências, Universidade de Lisboa).

On March 11th of 2020, the World Health Organization declared the COVID-19 global public health emergency a pandemic.

In Portugal, the team at the department of epidemiology Instituto Nacional de Saúde Doutor Ricardo Jorge, has been, since the start of the epidemic, developing reports with an array of different statistical and mathematical procedures, in order to present a clear picture of the evolution of the epidemic, with the objective of supporting public health policy making. This work involved applying nowcasting and forecasting techniques, estimating real-time effective reproduction number, as well as building a SEIR-type model with heterogeneous mixing among age groups.

Public health officials systematically want to know the current trend of new cases, and if the implemented mitigation measures worked. Moreover, considering a set of new measures, which will be the most efficacious in reducing the incidence a mitigating the impact of the epidemic?

In order to describe the current transmissibility and the factors that influence its change, we need real-time information on the incidence of infection that can only be obtained with nowcasting techniques, given that, on a daily basis we only observe notifications of cases, which is lagged, and only contains a fraction of occurred onsets of the last weeks. Transmission dynamics mathematical models are then applied to create scenarios on the probable effect of a new mitigation measures and evaluate the impact of past ones.

This is a joint work with: Susana Silva1, Constantino Pereira Caetano1,2, Baltazar Nunes1,3.

1 Departamento de Epidemiologia, Instituto Nacional de Saúde Doutor Ricardo Jorge
2 Instituto Superior Técnico, Universidade de Lisboa
3 Escola Nacional de Saúde Pública, Universidade NOVA de Lisboa

Seminário no contexto do MEIO - Mestrado de Estatística e Investigação Operacional.

Zoom | Password: 037629 - Meeting ID: 824 8023 2544

18h15
Departamento de Estatística e Investigação Operacional
DEIO
2.º Ciclo
Mestrado
Estatística
Investigação Operacional
COVID-19
#EuFicoEmCasa
Logótipo da Unite!
The AI´s have it? Reflections on the History, Present, and Future of AI-Human Relationships

Summer School no âmbito da Rede UNITE! (University Network for Innovation, Technology and Engineering), de que faz parte a ULisboa.
Cartaz do evento
Dia Aberto Virtual da Noite Europeia dos Investigadores

Uma iniciativa com o objetivo de aproximar a ciência dos jovens de todas as idades, com desafios, palestras e muita diversão, num formato inteiramente online!
Geometry and topology of symmetric products

Primeira edição das Manhãs de Matemática na Aberta, dedicada à Geometria, com a participação de Carlos Florentino (Ciências ULisboa). 
Organisms and Machines Revisited

Hi-Phi Seminar, por Lorenzo Baravalle (FCUL, CFCUL) e Maurizio Esposito (FCUL, CIUHCT).
Science & Art to foster dialogue

Solid Earth Seminar, por Ana Matias (CIMA - Universidade do Algarve, Portugal).
Modelling and prediction in recurrent time-to-event sports injury data: a penalized Cox regression approach

Seminário conjunto do Centro de Estatística e Aplicações da Universidade de Lisboa e do Centro de Matemática Computacional e Estocástica, por Dae-Jin Lee (BCAM - Basque Center for Applied Statistics / Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile - UC, Departamento de Ecología).
Imagem ilustrativa da sessão
Homenagem a António Galopim de Carvalho

Sessão de homenagem no âmbito da 13.ª Reunião Anual da APG - Associação Portuguesa de Geólogos.
Dispositions and Relations

Seminário Permanente de Filosofia das Ciências, por Gil Santos  (CFCUL/GI2).
An updated overview of the regular Riemann-Hilbert correspondence for D-modules

Colóquio de Matemática, por Teresa Monteiro Fernandes (Departamento de Matemática | Ciências ULisboa).
Uma janela sobre o desconhecido. Tópicos de filosofia e estatística

O curso visa apresentar uma série de perspetivas sobre o desenvolvimento conceitual da estatística e sobre o uso de inferências e modelos estatísticos nas ciências empíricas.
Cartaz de apresentação da iniciativa
European Inventor Award

Young Inventors Prize / European Inventor Award: candidaturas até 01 de outubro de 2021.
Mapa antigo
On the origin and evolution of the nautical chart

Workshop internacional associado ao projeto Medea-Chart.
Imagem ilustrativa do curso, acompanhada de várias informações úteis
Curso livre de Desenho de Natureza

Um curso dirigido ao público em geral e a estudantes de arte ou ciência (a partir dos 16 anos), com interesse em desenho de observação, ilustração e biologia, com ou sem experiência em desenho.
Scientific Writing and Communication

The objective of this course is to introduce participants to the details of communication and writing scientific publications.
Imagem ilustrativa do programa, acompanhada do respetivo título
StartHealth@ULisboa

Um programa de aceleração de ideias e negócios, promovido pela redeSaúde, com candidaturas até 30 de setembro de 2021.
Production of Science Communication Activities

The objective of this course is to introduce participants to the details of communicating science to non-specialized audiences, including, but not exclusive to, public and private stakeholders, students and teachers, and media professionals.
Natural History Collections and Biodiversity

This course aims to evidence the importance of natural history collections for the study of biodiversity, to show new tools and approaches to extract and disseminate biodiversity data from natural history collections and to increase awareness of young researchers for the scientific and cultural value of Natural History Museums.
Stable isotopes in Ecology and Environment: a tool to integrate scales and complexity

The course aims at providing an introduction to stable isotopes ratios as tools to understand global, ecosystem and community level bio/geo cycles; light isotopes: H, N, C, O and S isotopes, geo cycles and ecological significance; sampling and analytical methodologies in stable isotope analysis.
EvoS-2: Evolutionary Studies - applying evolutionary thinking outside the biology realm

EvoS aims at turning evolutionary theory into a common language to areas that pertain to the natural world, including human affairs.
Soil ecology and ecosystem services

The course SoilEco aims at introducing attendants to an updated state of the art of diversity of the soil biota and the functional roles played by soil organisms in key ecological processes.
Until death do us apart: living in a symbiotic world

In this course, we promote a multidisciplinary approach presenting the most recent findings on the topic and challenging the traditional way of considering symbiotic associations as exceptions and not as the rule.
Urban Ecology: the green within the city

The goal of this course is to provide to the participants with current and practical knowledge on urban ecology, including ecological and social aspects.
Strategies for citizen engagement in science communication

This course aims to explore ways of communicating science to non-specialized audiences, such as policy makers, industry, general public (including students and teachers), through their engagement and participation in citizen science activities.
Island Biogeography

This course introduces the field of island biogeography, a discipline that has long influenced other research areas such as macroecology, community ecology, evolution and conservation biology.
Science and the Media - bringing together scientists, journalists and society

Scientists, as the main actors in the production of scientific knowledge, have the responsibility of having an active voice in communicating this knowledge – and that can be achieved for example by a conscious use of the communication tools at their disposal and a better articulation with journalists, among other means.

Páginas