Seminários em Estatística

Nowcasting and forecasting the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in Portugal

Transmissão através de Videoconferência

Speaker: Liliana Antunes (Departamento de Epidemiologia Instituto Nacional de Saúde Doutor Ricardo Jorge / Faculdade de Ciências, Universidade de Lisboa).

On March 11th of 2020, the World Health Organization declared the COVID-19 global public health emergency a pandemic.

In Portugal, the team at the department of epidemiology Instituto Nacional de Saúde Doutor Ricardo Jorge, has been, since the start of the epidemic, developing reports with an array of different statistical and mathematical procedures, in order to present a clear picture of the evolution of the epidemic, with the objective of supporting public health policy making. This work involved applying nowcasting and forecasting techniques, estimating real-time effective reproduction number, as well as building a SEIR-type model with heterogeneous mixing among age groups.

Public health officials systematically want to know the current trend of new cases, and if the implemented mitigation measures worked. Moreover, considering a set of new measures, which will be the most efficacious in reducing the incidence a mitigating the impact of the epidemic?

In order to describe the current transmissibility and the factors that influence its change, we need real-time information on the incidence of infection that can only be obtained with nowcasting techniques, given that, on a daily basis we only observe notifications of cases, which is lagged, and only contains a fraction of occurred onsets of the last weeks. Transmission dynamics mathematical models are then applied to create scenarios on the probable effect of a new mitigation measures and evaluate the impact of past ones.

This is a joint work with: Susana Silva1, Constantino Pereira Caetano1,2, Baltazar Nunes1,3.

Departamento de Epidemiologia, Instituto Nacional de Saúde Doutor Ricardo Jorge
Instituto Superior Técnico, Universidade de Lisboa
Escola Nacional de Saúde Pública, Universidade NOVA de Lisboa

Seminário no contexto do MEIO - Mestrado de Estatística e Investigação Operacional.

Zoom | Password: 037629 - Meeting ID: 824 8023 2544

Departamento de Estatística e Investigação Operacional