Solid Earth Seminars

From economic growth to sea level rise and coastal risk

Sala 6.2.46, FCUL, Lisboa

Por Carlos Antunes (Instituto Dom Luiz, FCUL).

Abstract: The Global Warming (GW) post pre-industrial era has been considered the main driver of Sea Level Rise (SLR) and all the Climate Changes (CC) we are observing. But which causes from human activity drives the Global Warming?

Since Pre-Industrial period CO2 in the atmosphere has increased from 280 ppm, in 1880, to 410 ppm, in 2018. In first half of 20th century the average growth rate was 3 ppm/decade, in the second half of the century was 12 ppm/decade and in last 18 years the average growth was 22 ppm/decade. Just in the last 10 years it increased 25 ppm, an equivalent change of 5 thousand year-period in the last post-glaciation. Global CO2 emissions from fossil fuels increased from 9.4 Gton in 1960 to 36.2 Gton in 2016, 55% of which in average remained in the atmosphere. From 1880 the total accumulated anthropogenic CO2 in the atmosphere counts between 1850 to 1950 Gton.

World population in 1850 was 1.262 billion and GDP/cap was $650, in 2015 it was 7.383 billion and GDP/cap $10,180. In a 165-years period this is an increase of 5.85 times in the population and 15.66 times in the GDP/cap. Although, due to technological revolution, the carbon intensity decreased from 6.9 KgCO2/$ in 1960 to 0.48 KgCO2/$ in 2015. Through the Identity of Ehrlich & Holdren (I = P x A x T), the evolution of these numbers gives the evidences of the great contribution of human kind activity to the increase of CO2 in the atmosphere, and therefore in the GW due to radiative forcing.

The trapped heat by the greenhouse effect has been the main reason for the increase of the ocean heat content (32x1022 Joules since 1975, equivalent to 3.2 billion atomic bombs of energy), responsible for the ocean thermal expansion, and the reason for the ice melt of the main glaciers, polar ice caps and ice sheets, responsible for the ocean mass increase. Those two components are the main reasons for the eustatic variation of the ocean and consequent SLR of the past 150 years.

Recent projections of SLR for 21st century, from process-based models to semi-empirical and empirical approach, run from 0.5 to 2.5 m, each one with different impacts on coastal regions, mainly in the low-lying lands. The world population who lives near coast areas is 10 to 12%, and it is expected to increase. In Portugal, are living today around 14% of the population in the 2 km coastal band, according to CENSOS 2011. Such exposure, with all economic activity it involves in those areas, the impacts and indirect consequences of SLR are expected to be unpredictable and incommensurable.

A complete and rigorous assessment of SLR risk on the coastal areas, based in the most likely and extreme hazard scenarios, are crucial for the sake of a planned economic sustainability and a greater resilience of the coastal countries and communities.

All these issues will be addressed with the author's latest research, as well as a summary of case studies of the coastal risk assessment on the Atlantic Coast of Portugal mainland.

13h00
IDL - Instituto Dom Luiz

Lisbon AI Seminar, por Klaus Gärtner (CFCUL/RG2).

Título/data/local do evento e imagem representativa de pessoa a trabalhar num mundo tecnológico

As Jornadas Científicas 2024 da Universidade de Lisboa são dedicadas ao tema “Impacto Atual e Futuro da Inteligência Artificial no Trabalho”.

Seminário do Centro de Estatística e Aplicações da Universidade de Lisboa e do Centro de Matemática Computacional e Estocástica, por Heliton Tavares (Universidade Federal do Pará, Brasil).

Lisbon Webinar in Analysis and Differential Equations, por Adán Corcho (Universidad de Córdoba).

Pessoa ajoelhada no hall de edifício pejado de luzes

Ação de formação para docentes e investigadores de Ciências.

Título/data/local do evento, sobre a Tabela Periódica

This year's program will cover two plenary sessions hosted by Susete Pinteus and Hugo Miranda, complemented by oral presentations, flash talks, and poster communications. Finally, a round table discussion will take place at the end of our meeting.

Seminário Helena Avelar de Astronomia e Astrologia Antiga, por Stephen Johnston (History of Science Museum, University of Oxford).

Seminário do Laboratório de Instrumentação e Física Experimental de Partículas, por Paschal Coyle (Centre de Physique de Particules de Marseille).

Logótipo Moodle

Ação de formação para docentes e investigadores de Ciências.

TWIN2PIPSA Expert Seminar, por Isabelle Landrieu (Lille University, Inserm, Institute Pasteur de Lille Research Department U1167).

Seminário por Navid Talebanfard (University of Sheffield).

Logótipo do prémio

As candidaturas à 11.ª edição decorrem até 28 de junho.

Vai realizar-se em Lisboa, nos dias 28 e 29 de junho de 2024, o 37.º Encontro do Seminário Nacional de História da Matemática.

Logótipo do Verão na ULisboa, sobre um fundo amarelo

Uma oportunidade única de conheceres e experimentares o ritmo e o espírito da vida académica!

Celebração prospetiva das Ciências Matemáticas em Portugal 50 anos após o 25 de abril

Reasoning Seminar, por Joseph Berkovitz (Institute for the History and Philosophy of Science and Technology and Philosophy Department University of Toronto).

Título/data/local do evento e representação do cérebro humano

O maior evento anual na área da ciência e da tecnologia em Portugal.

Workshop no âmbito do projeto EVORISE, por Kevin Mitchell (Smurfit Institute of Genetics and Institute of Neuroscience, Trinity College Dublin) e Luís Pessoa (Department of Psychology, University of Maryland).

Candidaturas até 19 de junho.

The topics of the conference include (but are not limited to) classical and quantum integrable systems, complex geometry of moduli spaces, automorphic forms and their applications to number theory.

Título/data do evento, logótipos das entidades organizadoras e fotografia de Lisboa (Castelo de S. Jorge e respetiva colina)

Inscrição (taxa reduzida) até 20 de abril.

Título/data/local do evento, logótipos das entidades organizadoras e várias fotografias da orla costeira e de pessoas

Escola de verão com um programa muito diversificado, com especialistas em vários tópicos, que vão falar sobre formas de olhar para o nosso planeta de uma forma integrada, juntando conhecimentos de várias disciplinas.

Are you a BSc or MSc student interested in Soft Matter, Non-linear Dynamics and Waves or Particle Physics?

Título do programa, sobre mosaico de fotografias de jovens cientistas

As candidaturas encontram-se encerradas. Obrigada aos quase 80 candidatos/as!

Logótipo do evento, sobre um fundo branco

Um evento de reunião da comunidade nacional nas diversas vertentes da informática, com a ambição de ser o fórum de eleição para a divulgação, discussão e reconhecimento de trabalhos científicos.

Páginas