Solid Earth Seminars

From economic growth to sea level rise and coastal risk

Sala 6.2.46, FCUL, Lisboa

Por Carlos Antunes (Instituto Dom Luiz, FCUL).

Abstract: The Global Warming (GW) post pre-industrial era has been considered the main driver of Sea Level Rise (SLR) and all the Climate Changes (CC) we are observing. But which causes from human activity drives the Global Warming?

Since Pre-Industrial period CO2 in the atmosphere has increased from 280 ppm, in 1880, to 410 ppm, in 2018. In first half of 20th century the average growth rate was 3 ppm/decade, in the second half of the century was 12 ppm/decade and in last 18 years the average growth was 22 ppm/decade. Just in the last 10 years it increased 25 ppm, an equivalent change of 5 thousand year-period in the last post-glaciation. Global CO2 emissions from fossil fuels increased from 9.4 Gton in 1960 to 36.2 Gton in 2016, 55% of which in average remained in the atmosphere. From 1880 the total accumulated anthropogenic CO2 in the atmosphere counts between 1850 to 1950 Gton.

World population in 1850 was 1.262 billion and GDP/cap was $650, in 2015 it was 7.383 billion and GDP/cap $10,180. In a 165-years period this is an increase of 5.85 times in the population and 15.66 times in the GDP/cap. Although, due to technological revolution, the carbon intensity decreased from 6.9 KgCO2/$ in 1960 to 0.48 KgCO2/$ in 2015. Through the Identity of Ehrlich & Holdren (I = P x A x T), the evolution of these numbers gives the evidences of the great contribution of human kind activity to the increase of CO2 in the atmosphere, and therefore in the GW due to radiative forcing.

The trapped heat by the greenhouse effect has been the main reason for the increase of the ocean heat content (32x1022 Joules since 1975, equivalent to 3.2 billion atomic bombs of energy), responsible for the ocean thermal expansion, and the reason for the ice melt of the main glaciers, polar ice caps and ice sheets, responsible for the ocean mass increase. Those two components are the main reasons for the eustatic variation of the ocean and consequent SLR of the past 150 years.

Recent projections of SLR for 21st century, from process-based models to semi-empirical and empirical approach, run from 0.5 to 2.5 m, each one with different impacts on coastal regions, mainly in the low-lying lands. The world population who lives near coast areas is 10 to 12%, and it is expected to increase. In Portugal, are living today around 14% of the population in the 2 km coastal band, according to CENSOS 2011. Such exposure, with all economic activity it involves in those areas, the impacts and indirect consequences of SLR are expected to be unpredictable and incommensurable.

A complete and rigorous assessment of SLR risk on the coastal areas, based in the most likely and extreme hazard scenarios, are crucial for the sake of a planned economic sustainability and a greater resilience of the coastal countries and communities.

All these issues will be addressed with the author's latest research, as well as a summary of case studies of the coastal risk assessment on the Atlantic Coast of Portugal mainland.

13h00
IDL - Instituto Dom Luiz
Logótipo ERC - European Research Council

Ciclo de sessões de divulgação das oportunidades ERC - European Research Council para 2020.

 

ERC Days @ Porto, 25 e 26 de junho

Ações de Formação Pedagógica para Docentes

O objetivo deste curso é apoiar o desenvolvimento docente, incentivando a reflexão sobre estratégias de ensino que podem ser utilizadas no ES.

Por Byungnam Kahng (Department of Physics and Astronomy, Seoul National University).

Por Fabio Deelan Cunden (University College Dublin).

João de Sousa Alves defende a dissertação "CAN FD: a communication network for future avionic systems".

Almoços com Ciências

Especialistas de Ciências ULisboa conversam informalmente sobre temas atuais, durante o almoço.

Por Cristiana Palmela Pereira (Faculdade de Medicina Dentária da Universidade de Lisboa).

The main goal of this 2-days workshop is to gather  researchers, post-docs and students from all Europe, working on Planetary Science studies to discuss about several topics related with Planetary Atmospheres (including exoplanets), and promote collaborations on the basis

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Colóquio por Marta Macedo (Instituto de Ciências Sociais, Universidade de Lisboa).

O evento conta com a participação, na qualidade de keynote speaker, de Filipe Duarte Santos (Ciências ULisboa).

Conferências CIUHCT "Ricardo Carlos Smith, a forgotten pioneer of Portuguese horticulture"

As Conferências do CIUHCT são um ciclo de palestras organizado anualmente pelo CIUHCT acerca de assuntos de História das Ciências e da Tecnologia.

Logotipo Lisboa 2020

O Programa Lisboa 2020 abre concursos para Investimentos em Infraestruturas Tecnológicas.

Frontiers in E3: 5th cE3c Annual Meeting

The cE3c 5th Annual Meeting will take place on July 1-2 2019, at the National Museum of Natural History and Science.

Verão na ULisboa 2019

A edição de 2019 da iniciativa Verão na ULisboa decorre nas semanas de 01 a 05 de julho (alunos do 10.º,11.º e 12.º ano) e de 08 a 12 de julho (alunos do 7.º, 8.º e 9.º ano).

As provas, requeridas por José Manuel Lourenço Coutinho Afonso, decorrem nos dias 01 e 02 de julho de 2019.

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Under the general framework of Global Change Ecology, the goal of this course is to provide the participants with the most recent and practical knowledge on the use of Functional Diversity.

Ciclo de colóquios no âmbito da Exposição "E3 - Einstein, Eddington e o Eclipse"

Colóquio por Duarte Pape (Paralelo Zero).

Doutoramento em História e Filosofia das Ciências

Doutorando: Luís Miguel Campos Ribeiro.

Tema da tese e alvo de discussão oral: O candidato apresentará o Seminário Doutoral III.

Ciência 2019 - Encontro com a Ciência e Tecnologia em Portugal

O evento procura reunir a comunidade científica em torno de um programa multidisciplinar que aborda os desafios científicos e societais atuais, tendo por base os 17 Objetivos de

Cursos Avançados cE3c 2018/2019

Currently, climate changes or alterations are known to be reflected on the stable isotope ratios of Hydrogen, Nitrogen, Carbon, Oxygen and Sulphur present in atmospheric gas forms, fresh or ocean water, as well as in plants and animals and organic matter in the soil.

Izabella Campolina Silva e Hemprich apresenta o trabalho de projeto "Consortia optimization for European Space Agengy proposals based on cognitive computing".

Escola de Verão de Energia

Imagina que era possível experimentar um curso universitário antes de concorreres ao ensino superior.

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