Por Ganna Rozhnova (BioISI/University Medical Center Utrecht, The Netherlands).

Mass vaccination had a large impact on reducing COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths. In the first part of the talk, I will present our results on the dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 during the vaccination rollout in Portugal [1]. We projected hospitalizations from the first official case until the beginning of 2022 using an age-structured transmission model that was fitted to age-specific seroprevalence, hospital admissions, and vaccination coverage for Portugal using the methodology from [2]. In the second part of the talk, I will discuss which model extensions are necessary to investigate the dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19 measures in the post-pandemic period.

[1] Viana, J., van Dorp, C.H., Nunes, A., Gomes, M.C., van Boven, M., Kretzschmar, M.E., Veldhoen, M., Rozhnova, G. (2021). Controlling the pandemic during the SARS-CoV-2 vaccination rollout. Nature Communications 12: 3674. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-23938-8.

[2] Rozhnova, G., van Dorp, C.H., Bruijning-Verhagen, P., Bootsma, M.C.J., van de Wijgert, J.H.H.M., Bonten, M.J.M., Kretzschmar, M.E. (2021). Model-based evaluation of school- and non-school-related measures to control the COVID-19 pandemic. Nature Communications 12: 1614. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-21899-6.

Transmissão via Zoom.